Prosperity 2030 UCL · IGP Prosperity 2030

Macro Cashflow

Annual cashflow projection for the P2030 programme

Fiscal · economics

Year by year cashflow for the policies in the P2030 programme, £ billions.

The % of GDP values in the final column refer to the steady state reached in year 5 of the programme.

Y0/1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 (SS) % GDP
REVENUES
National Contributions (incomes) 51.79 64.74 70.14 75.53 2.8%
Property Tax (net of CT replaced) 9.50 19.00 28.50 28.50 1.1%
SDLT replaced (3.43) (6.86) (10.40) (10.40) -0.4%
Air Passenger Duty (tripled + UK holiday VAT) 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 0.3%
Aviation VAT (private travel) 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.0%
Construction VAT equalisation (mechanical) (2.00) (2.00) (2.00) (2.00) -0.1%
Behavioural offset (informal recapture + demand) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.0%
TV License Fee Reserve 1.95 _
Community Housing repayments (from LG) 0.44 0.88 1.19 1.19 0.0%
REVENUE TOTAL 10.25 65.10 84.56 96.22 101.62 3.8%
OPERATING EXPENDITURE
Substitution (govt absorbs existing HH bills)
Transport fares (existing farebox) 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 0.1%
Universal Energy Service 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 0.3%
Universal Water Service 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 0.2%
Universal Information Service 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.1%
School Meals (parent-paid conversion) 0.18 0.55 0.65 0.71 0.71 0.0%
National Contributions (benefits at source) _ _ _ _ (5.28) (10.56) (16.00) -0.6%
Substitution subtotal 7.73 23.30 18.12 12.90 7.46 0.3%
New operational (genuinely new service provision)
Universal Transport Service 1.48 3.06 4.68 6.38 0.2%
Universal Digital Service 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.1%
Local Service Hubs 0.08 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 0.0%
NFS: Community Food Centres 0.55 1.55 2.75 3.65 4.03 0.1%
NFS: CFC fit-out 0.30 0.50 0.60 0.40 0.0%
NFS: School Meals Reform (new provision) 0.51 1.45 2.35 2.70 2.70 0.1%
NFS: School kitchen upgrades 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.0%
NFS: Participating Venues 0.07 0.26 0.40 0.47 0.47 0.0%
National Digital Service 0.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.1%
Energy for the Future 1.75 3.50 5.25 7.00 0.3%
GB Energy Network 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.1%
Democracy Revival 2.04 2.04 2.04 2.04 0.1%
Community Housing (refurbishment) 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.60 1.00 0.0%
Universal Care Service 2.33 4.67 7.00 7.00 0.3%
Right to Life 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.0%
New operational subtotal 2.26 22.41 30.67 37.94 41.92 1.6%
NEW OPERATING EXPENDITURE TOTAL 9.99 45.71 48.79 50.84 49.38 1.8%
As % of revenues 97% 70% 58% 53% 49%
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENDITURE excl. NC tax 9.99 45.71 54.07 61.40 65.38 2.4%
LOCAL 1.76 9.68 14.61 18.51 19.04 0.7%
Local as percentage of all expenditure 17.6% 21.2% 29.9% 36.4% 38.6%
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Transport build programme 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 0.2%
Community Housing (New) 3.33 6.67 9.00 9.00 0.3%
CAPITAL ALLOCATION TOTAL 8.54 11.88 14.21 14.21 0.5%
Total expenditure + capital as % of revenues 97% 83% 78% 79% 78%
Total Local including Transport and Housing 1.76 18.22 26.49 32.72 33.25 1.2%
FISCAL SPACE (NATIONAL PRIORITY) 0.26 10.85 23.89 31.17 38.03 1.4%
As % of revenues 3% 17% 28% 32% 37%
_
ALT : CAPITAL DEBT SERVICE @ 6%/30yrs, shown for reference only
Transport build programme 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.0%
Community Housing 0.44 0.88 1.19 1.19 0.0%
CAPITAL SERVICING TOTAL 1.13 1.57 1.88 1.88 0.1%
FISCAL SPACE (FINANCED) 0.26 18.26 34.20 43.51 50.36 1.9%

Published 18 May 2026