Prosperity 2030 UCL · IGP Prosperity 2030

Fiscal space

Article · economics

To provide an abstract starting point, this report analyses changes to the fiscal position. This is a relative analysis that takes a given starting set of conditions equivalent to the fiscal choices of the UK as at the time of writing.

The programme creates an arbitrary 1.4% of GDP as an example of expanded fiscal capacity that can be used to address any one or multiple priority challenges that are not currently addressed. The additional fiscal space is assigned to national priorities that will be the prerogative of the government that implements the P2030 programme to define.

The creation of fiscal space through the interaction of taxation with the recomposition of welfare services is the core finding, not the specific fiscal target chosen. (Tax modelling can always be finely tuned to produce as much fiscal space as is deemed either necessary or possible.)

Published 18 May 2026