Prosperity 2030 UCL · IGP Prosperity 2030

Community Housing

Shelter in a storm

Structural Measure · care, community, work, housing
Housing
Shared Facility Units
Focused on non-market needs
Household savings
£10 Billion / year
Unmodelled direct value
Annual Funding
0.4% GDP
Community Housing at steady state

The Community Housing policy is the public provision of shelter for people that the housing market does not serve, and will not serve.

Britain’s social care system is collapsing in slow motion, and housing is implicated. We have built almost nothing for the life transitions that social care exists to support: moving into older age, end of life, recovering from family breakdown, leaving hospital, escaping crisis. Instead, we have pretended that the family home and the residential care home were the only two options worth funding.

Community Housing is the missing physical layer. The policy allocates £10 billion a year from Property Tax to fund an open-ended programme of community housing, designed expressly for those transitions. And a national strategy to refurbish the 300,000-plus long-term empty homes already in the stock, at 50–80% less embodied carbon than new build.

This policy connects with social care, Skills Centres, new local democracy, and Service Hubs to start building the foundations of resilient communities.

At £10.00 billion a year this policy is around two and a half times the annual funding of the government’s Social and Affordable Homes Programme. The £39 billion settlement announced in 2025, which runs across ten years, averages £3.90 billion a year, and reaches £4 billion a year only by 2029-30. And because the Community Housing policy is funded from Property Tax rather than borrowing, it is a permanent annual flow, not a fixed ten-year grant programme.

Detail

Various, Mixed and Shared

A stock of community housing is not a care leavers’ hostel or an extra-care facility, nor is it a refuge move-on building. It is a stock of buildings that can absorb a new care leaver this month, a second-stage domestic abuse family next month, a ninety-year-old whose home has become impossible to manage, a family burned out of their house, and an older worker between jobs and tenancies. The unit type (small private space, generous shared facilities) is designed to support that flexibility. A mix of residents can a social good in itself: the loneliness that older people in single-occupancy housing experience and the isolation that care leavers experience are problems that mixed living arrangements partially alleviate.

The Downstream Costs

Three things are happening simultaneously and visibly in 2026. Beds are blocked at one in eight hospitals by people who are medically fit to leave but have with nowhere to go, costing the NHS around £2 billion a year in direct costs and far more in cancelled procedures and emergency department backlogs. Local authority spending on temporary accommodation has more than doubled in five years to reach £2.84 billion a year, with seven London boroughs already on Exceptional Financial Support and Birmingham among others reducing core services to fund homelessness duty. One-quarter of the adult prison population have been in care; the same proportion of homeless adults is also made up of care leavers. The over-65 population will have grown to 22% of the country by 2030 and the over-85 population will have doubled by 2045. Yet the housing stock to support them does not exist.

These are not separate problems. They are manifestations of the same problem: a country that has stopped building shelter for the people whose lives don’t fit the market’s product range. The cost shows up in the NHS budget, the local authority budget, the criminal justice budget, the children’s social care budget, and the inadequate temporary accommodation people end up living in. Community Housing is the policy that puts shelter in the right place at the start. It does not claim a specific scale of saving against those downstream costs, but a permanent capital line dedicated to building the housing those populations need will, over time, dent those costs substantially.

The Casey Moment

The Independent Commission on Adult Social Care has called for a “creation moment” for social care, equivalent to the founding of the NHS. Whatever recommendations the Commission makes in 2026 and 2028, the housing dimension of social care reform is unavoidable. Care delivered in the home requires homes that can support it; care delivered in a community setting requires the community setting to exist. Community Housing is the physical layer of social care reform. It is funded, designed, and built to be that.

Part of a System

The system effect is what matters. The same councils that receive age-weighted Universal Care Service funding to deliver care to older people, apply to build the homes in which that care can actually happen. The new Local Service Hubs and Community Food Centres provide the connective tissue: a place to eat, a place to be known, a route into the local services people might otherwise miss. Community Housing is therefore not a housing supply policy with a social-care bonus. It is the capital programme for the care infrastructure that Baroness Casey’s “creation moment” requires, financed by removing the speculative gain that has driven a wedge through the housing market over the last 40 years.

Published 18 May 2026