Prosperity 2030 UCL · IGP Prosperity 2030

Econometrics

Article · economics

Analysis in this report leads with quantitative analysis using fiscal and economic metrics. This choice reflects an observation that fiscal constraints present the first barrier to action, and recognition that fiscal discipline is a valuable reflection of underlying biophysical constraints.

This limits the report to focussing on substantiating the effects on social and physical resilience using economic values. Analysis of the strengthened social cohesion and elevated efficacy of collective decision-taking would require post-factum qualitative analysis beyond the scope of this report, and so are speculative outcomes of the programme.

The British Academy’s Sustainability and Social Value Working Group1 (reporting jointly with HM Treasury and the Department for Business and Trade) concluded that GDP should be complemented by a wider set of comprehensive economic, social and environmental indicators. Prosperity 2030 takes that recommendation as starting position and proposes Citizen Scienceled Prosperity Indices as the operational companion measure.

GDP

The report uses GDP as a metric for fiscal space without endorsing GDP’s credibility for anything except measuring debt sustainability.

Further reading3 items

Extensions, alternative analyses, and supplementary work – curated by the IGP.

  • ExtendsPrinceton University PressDiane Coyle2025-04
    The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters

    Argues that twentieth-century economic statistics no longer measure what matters in a digital, service-based, intangibles-rich economy, and proposes a refreshed measurement framework rooted in comprehensive wealth.

  • SupplementsPrinceton University PressDiane Coyle2014-02
    GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History

    A short, accessible history of how GDP came to dominate economic measurement, what it does well, and where it now misleads. Older but the standard introduction.

  • ExtendsUCL Institute for Global ProsperityWoodcraft, S; Collins, H; McArdle, I;2021-03
    Re-thinking livelihood security

    Why addressing the democratic deficit in economic policy-making opens up new pathways to prosperity

  1. Abrams, D., Moore, H.L., Digby, J. and Wright, A. (2025) The importance of social investment for UK economic strategy. British Academy Policy Programme on Economic Strategy: Sustainability and Social Value Working Group. London: The British Academy. Available at: https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/5761/The_importance_of_social_investment_for_UK_economic_strategy.pdf (Accessed: 23 May 2026) ↩

Published 18 May 2026 · Updated 23 June 2026